Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 28.473131 30.428161 32.536073 34.993374 37.799715 40.930020 44.722210
2025-12-14 24.885108 27.294306 30.019638 33.374061 37.454886 42.347283 48.803315
2025-12-21 23.430972 26.163658 29.360825 33.455141 38.682273 45.323453 54.755134
2025-12-28 22.485684 25.482505 29.089172 33.868986 40.241094 48.789959 61.851438
2026-01-04 21.217364 24.281065 28.038366 33.135792 40.141239 49.920741 65.725559
2026-01-11 20.730700 23.994461 28.086500 33.795821 41.941109 53.901723 74.742890
2026-01-18 20.174769 23.569817 27.905327 34.099957 43.230599 57.266515 83.555729
2026-01-25 19.343834 22.736567 27.121559 33.486908 43.079626 58.306966 88.384871
2026-02-01 18.573941 21.942082 26.339305 32.808524 42.745484 58.971226 92.619284
2026-02-08 17.603419 20.841447 25.087483 31.371361 41.106154 57.206740 91.361329
2026-02-15 17.436747 20.801569 25.281789 32.051105 42.860088 61.589683 104.889030
2026-02-22 17.303770 20.796249 25.516674 32.797923 44.789225 66.618443 122.266585
2026-03-01 16.710001 20.212837 25.010088 32.547775 45.316896 69.674853 138.298594
2026-03-08 15.818422 19.187137 23.826826 31.175443 43.779736 68.335749 140.900436
2026-03-15 15.421302 18.824482 23.573269 31.236582 44.774006 72.542012 165.482931
2026-03-22 15.142420 18.610662 23.519223 31.604971 46.371313 78.551123 205.410574
2026-03-29 14.619714 18.026312 22.880170 30.955300 45.944436 79.629145 225.177937
2026-04-05 14.449117 17.936653 22.976644 31.539910 48.007359 87.669106 304.350773
2026-04-12 14.213117 17.739990 22.895692 31.808889 49.468940 94.700009 412.570122
2026-04-19 13.804031 17.274055 22.374551 31.266450 49.144437 96.387136 482.180308
2026-04-26 13.406247 16.811610 21.839483 30.665139 48.626614 97.361906 556.390854
2026-05-03 12.875545 16.138635 20.951712 29.387549 46.509629 92.694117 513.466299
2026-05-10 12.793276 16.126894 21.103940 29.992451 48.651772 102.957293 931.531452